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Policy Report · 2024

Using Bayesian Methods to Conduct Subgroup Analysis in Evaluations of Employment Programs

Kautz, Tim, Christina Kent, and Dan Thal

OPRE Report 2024-027

Summary

Many Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) recipients and other individuals with low incomes seek employment and training programs to help them find jobs or improve their earnings. However, these programs do not necessarily benefit all participants equally. Program evaluations that include subgroup analysis can inform how employment programs provide their services and help them improve equity by identifying who needs more tailored services. This report details new and promising approaches to subgroup analysis for evaluators of employment programs.

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Tim Kautz

Economist studying the skills that help people succeed in education, employment, and life

© 2026 Tim Kautz